Research

2024

1. Automatic Identification under Polynomial Moment Restrictions with an Application to Social Networks

   Luan Borelli, Guilherme Exel, and Marcelo Moreira

   Work in Progress, 2024
2. Optimal Identifying Instrument Learning

   Luan Borelli, Guilherme Exel, and Marcelo Moreira

   Work in Progress, 2024
3. Global Optimization for CUE

   Luan Borelli, Guilherme Exel, Marcelo Moreira, Whitney Newey, and Mahrad Sharifvaghefi

   Work in Progress, 2024
4. Global Optimization for Nonlinear CUE

   Luan Borelli, Guilherme Exel, Marcelo Moreira, and Mahrad Sharifvaghefi

   Work in Progress, 2024

2022

1. Forecasting Brazilian GDP under Fiscal Foresight with a Noncausal Fiscal VAR

   Luan Borelli, and Christian Vonbun

   Forthcoming in Brazilian Review of Econometrics, 2022

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   Due to fiscal foresight, standard fiscal VAR models are inherently susceptible to issues of nonfundamentalness and noncausality, which can result in invalid estimates. While these problems have been extensively addressed in the fiscal literature, they have largely been overlooked in Brazilian fiscal VAR studies. To address this gap, we estimate a noncausal fiscal VAR model for Brazil—an alternative specification that may correct these issues—and use it to forecast Brazilian GDP. The results show that the noncausal VAR model outperforms the standard purely causal VAR in terms of forecasting performance, particularly when considering the typical Brazilian fiscal VAR dataset. This suggests that fiscal expectations may play a crucial role in shaping the dynamics of Brazilian GDP.

2. Do Macroeconomic Laws Exist?

   Luan Borelli

   Valor Econômico, 2022

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   This publication is written in Portuguese, and the title provided here is a free translation of the original. A review of Kevin Hoover’s The Methodology of Empirical Macroeconomics, published in Valor Econômico, Brazil’s leading financial newspaper.

2021

1. The Macroeconomics of Epidemics: Interstate Heterogeneity in Brazil

   Luan Borelli, and Geraldo Sandoval Góes

   EconomiA, 2021

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   We applied the SIR-macro model proposed by Eichenbaum et al. (2020) in its complete version to comparatively study the interaction between economic decisions and COVID-19 epidemics in five different Brazilian states: São Paulo (SP), Amazonas (AM), Ceará (CE), Rio de Janeiro (RJ), and Pernambuco (PE). Our goal was to analyze qualitatively how the main intrinsic differences of each of these states could affect the epidemic dynamics and its consequences. We computed and compared the model for each of the states, both in competitive equilibrium and under optimal containment policy adoption, and analyzed the implications of optimal policy adoption. We concluded that the intrinsic characteristics of the five different states could imply relevant differences in the general dynamics of the epidemic, in the optimal containment policies, in the effect of the adoption of these policies, and the severity of the economic recessions. One year after the original ex-ante calibration, we evaluated the death toll and economic recession predicted by the model comparing it against real data. The model predictions showed to be qualitatively sufficient to anticipate the size of the pandemic risk that later materialized in Brazil.

2. Lack of Coordination Between Federal and State Levels in Combatting COVID-19 in Brazil

   Luan Borelli, and Geraldo Sandoval Góes

   Cadernos ENAP, 2021

   National School of Public Administration (ENAP)

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   This publication is written in Portuguese, and the title provided here is a free translation of the original. This paper is a product of the project Implications of the Lack of Coordination Between Federal and State Levels in Managing COVID-19 Pandemic Response Policies in Brazil, awarded with a R$ 15,000.00 research grant by the National School of Public Administration (ENAP). The project was ranked 5th out of 228 research projects submitted.

2020

1. Interstate Heterogeneity and Combatting COVID-19 in Brazil

   Luan Borelli, and Geraldo Sandoval Góes

   CEPR VoxEU, 2020

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   Brazil has faced great difficulties in controlling the COVID-19 epidemic, having become the world’s epicentre of the coronavirus pandemic and recently reaching 50,000 fatalities. This column argues that the great heterogeneities between states in Brazil, together with difficulties in political coordination, may have shaped these consequences. Looking at five states, it investigates whether certain differences in the states’ intrinsic characteristics may have influenced the dynamics of the local epidemic. Governments may need to consider local conditions and adopt heterogeneous containment policies.